Friday, October 26, 2007

 

Them delusional Dems


I've been saying for a long time that it is impossible for a Democrat in a contested statewide election to win unless he or she can make inroads into East Tennessee. Ned McWherter famously did well in upper East Tennessee in 1986; Sara Kyle did very well in East Tennessee in 1994 when she ran successfully for the now-defunct Public Service Commission; and Phil Bredesen campaigned hard in the counties in an around Knox County in 2002 and was elected governor as a result.

If we look at the county-by-county map from last year's U.S. Senate race, we see that Harold Ford, Jr., aka Junior, did well in the state's Yellow Dog areas, i.e., urban Davidson and Shelby Counties, the counties near the Plateau, and the "My great-great-great-great grandpa was a Democrat and I am, too" counties near the Tennessee River in West Tennessee.

It was in East Tennessee, however, that the 2006 Senate race was decided. Indeed, East Tennessee was a sea of Corker red. Junior made a fine showing in Hamilton County, but he was handily dusted in the East Tennessee counties north of Chattanooga. Such was Junior's undoing. See this.

Fast forward 11 1/2 months.

Tennessee Democrats are hoping to bump off U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander next year. Their preferred candidate - as near as I can tell - is a feller named Mike McWherter. Mr. McWherter is the son of a former popular governor (who left office a dozen years ago), but he'll be making his first run for elected office if he decides to jump into the 2008 U.S. Senate race.

If Democrats were so sure 'bout their chances in '08, you'd think they'd be able to talk U.S. Rep. Bart Gordon or U.S. Rep. John Tanner - supposed conservative Democrats, both - into making the race. The fact that Democrats seem intent on nominating another Houston Gordon/Jeff Clark-style candidate shows that they really do not expect to defeat Senator Alexander next year.

All that said, please check out the polling info listed below. If the Democrats' preferred candidate for U.S. Senate loses East Tennessee 70 percent to 22 percent, tain't no way he's gonna go to Washington ... unless he books one of those "See D.C." tours!

Here's the polling info (HT: TN GOP):

"A statewide poll conducted earlier this month by a national firm shows Senator Lamar Alexander with a 60 percent to 29 percent lead on possible Democratic challenger Mike McWherter.

"Pollsters Ayres, McHenry Associates Inc. surveyed 800 Tennessee voters - Democrat, Republican and Independent from Oct. 8-11 with a margin for error of plus or minus 4 percent. Senator Alexander leads in all three of our state's grand divisions, 45 to 41 in the West, 60 to 27 in Middle, and 70 to 22 in the East."





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