Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Aujourd'hui au New Hampshire
According to a poll released late yesterday by 7NEWS/Suffolk University, today's New Hampshire Primary will be close. To wit:
"In the Democratic Primary, Obama (35 percent) leads Clinton (34 percent), John Edwards (15 percent) and Bill Richardson (3 percent). Eleven percent were undecided. ...
"In the Republican Primary, the 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll also shows the margin remains the same as it has for the past three days, essentially a dead heat. Mitt Romney (30 percent) led John McCain (27 percent), followed by Rudy Giuliani (10 percent), Mike Huckabee (9 percent) Ron Paul (8 percent), and Fred Thompson (2 percent). Thirteen percent were undecided."
My prediction: Those who say Obama and McCain will win running-away victories in New Hampshire don't know ... nothing. Indeed, a close vote in Obama's favor will embolden Hillary to fight in states like Florida and California; and a close vote in McCain's favor will embolden Romney to go all-in in South Carolina and (especially) Michigan.
When we wake up on Wednesday, neither the Democrat nor the Republican fat lady will've come anywhere close to singin'. Bank it. (Apologies to George Plaster.)