Thursday, May 07, 2009
"Think of This Next Time You're Told the GOP Is Doomed"
Ever since the senile and increasingly clueless Sen. Arlen Specter switched from Elephant to Jackass, the mainstream media has -- and RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) like Colin Powell have -- all but buried the GOP for the next 20-30 years. Well, NR Online's "Campaign Spot" engaging in some troof-telling you're not likely to witness anywhere else:
To read the national media, it's perpetual doomsday for the GOP, stemming from shocking and unexpected developments like Arlen Specter putting his personal ambitions above party loyalty. But as noted earlier today, when you look deeper into some polls, there are quite a few bits of decent-to-good news for Republican candidates in 2009 and 2010. It's a long way off, obviously, but Obamaphoria and a generic ballot advantage hasn't translated into good news for every incumbent Democrat.
There's good news in Senate races in Illinois, Connecticut, and Delaware; there's good news in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Looking past that, the GOP is probably going to take back the governor's mansions in Kansas, Oklahoma, maybe Tennessee, maybe Wyoming. The GOP has to like their early chances in Ohio and Michigan. And perhaps most surprising, in Colorado, former congressman Scott McInnis leads Gov. Bill Ritter, 48 percent to 41 percent, and Ritter's disapproval is 49 percent.
And now there are all kinds of interesting developments in New Hampshire: "Although [former senator John] Sununu has not indicated that he plans to run in 2010, a hypothetical matchup for Senate between Hodes and Sununu is likely to be a close match. If the election were held today, 46% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Sununu, 41% for Hodes, 2% for some other candidate, and 11% are not sure. Both candidates have the full support of their partisans, and Sununu holds a narrow 38% to 31% lead among Independents."
This is for Judd Gregg's seat; some GOP folk want to persuade him to reconsider his retirement. "Currently, 52% of New Hampshire likely voters said that if the 2010 election were held today, they would vote for Gregg, 36% said they would vote for Hodes, 2% would vote for some other candidate, and 10% are not sure."
If Hodes runs, that creates an open seat; now take a look at the other House seat: "First District Congressperson Carol Shea-Porter’s favorability ratings have remained stable over the past year but her unfavorable ratings have trended upwards over the past year. Currently, 38% of adults in the NH First Congressional District have a favorable opinion of her, 37% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 27% are neutral or don’t know enough to form an opinion of her. Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating stands at +1%, the lowest it has been since summer of 2008."
Only beef I have NR's analysis is this:
Ain't no maybe when it comes to Tennessee maybe having a Rebublican governor come 2011. Indeed, the only thing astute political observers of TN politics should be asking themselves at this point is this: How bad will the Dem nominee -- be he Herron or McWherter, or be she McMillan -- lose to Rep. Zach Wamp or Mayor Bill Haslam?!
To read the national media, it's perpetual doomsday for the GOP, stemming from shocking and unexpected developments like Arlen Specter putting his personal ambitions above party loyalty. But as noted earlier today, when you look deeper into some polls, there are quite a few bits of decent-to-good news for Republican candidates in 2009 and 2010. It's a long way off, obviously, but Obamaphoria and a generic ballot advantage hasn't translated into good news for every incumbent Democrat.
There's good news in Senate races in Illinois, Connecticut, and Delaware; there's good news in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Looking past that, the GOP is probably going to take back the governor's mansions in Kansas, Oklahoma, maybe Tennessee, maybe Wyoming. The GOP has to like their early chances in Ohio and Michigan. And perhaps most surprising, in Colorado, former congressman Scott McInnis leads Gov. Bill Ritter, 48 percent to 41 percent, and Ritter's disapproval is 49 percent.
And now there are all kinds of interesting developments in New Hampshire: "Although [former senator John] Sununu has not indicated that he plans to run in 2010, a hypothetical matchup for Senate between Hodes and Sununu is likely to be a close match. If the election were held today, 46% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Sununu, 41% for Hodes, 2% for some other candidate, and 11% are not sure. Both candidates have the full support of their partisans, and Sununu holds a narrow 38% to 31% lead among Independents."
This is for Judd Gregg's seat; some GOP folk want to persuade him to reconsider his retirement. "Currently, 52% of New Hampshire likely voters said that if the 2010 election were held today, they would vote for Gregg, 36% said they would vote for Hodes, 2% would vote for some other candidate, and 10% are not sure."
If Hodes runs, that creates an open seat; now take a look at the other House seat: "First District Congressperson Carol Shea-Porter’s favorability ratings have remained stable over the past year but her unfavorable ratings have trended upwards over the past year. Currently, 38% of adults in the NH First Congressional District have a favorable opinion of her, 37% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 27% are neutral or don’t know enough to form an opinion of her. Shea-Porter’s net favorability rating stands at +1%, the lowest it has been since summer of 2008."
Only beef I have NR's analysis is this:
Ain't no maybe when it comes to Tennessee maybe having a Rebublican governor come 2011. Indeed, the only thing astute political observers of TN politics should be asking themselves at this point is this: How bad will the Dem nominee -- be he Herron or McWherter, or be she McMillan -- lose to Rep. Zach Wamp or Mayor Bill Haslam?!
# posted by Joltin' Django @ Thursday, May 07, 2009 
